The blend of modest growth in commodity prices, shifting winds of protectionism from the United States and expansion of Canadian free trade agreements is expected to produce a more subdued range of export growth among the provinces for 2018 and 2019.
Newfoundland and Labrador
will be the lone province to experience double-digit growth in nominal exports in 2018. While commodity price growth will play a role, the biggest contributor to the growth comes from a full year of increasing production from the Hebron offshore oil platform and the ramping up of Vale’s Long Harbour nickel processing plant. The multi-year nature of these startups will continue to boost the province’s exports into 2019. While Quebec
’s goods exports are highly diversified, the significant increase in production of CSeries aircraft by Bombardier and the expansion of the Éléonore gold mine will help propel export growth of 8% in 2018. Alberta
will see exports expand in 2018 now that the Fort Hills oil sands project and the Sturgeon Refinery have started production. Additional export capacity growth from the energy sector and the startup of a $360-million Cavendish Farms potato processing plant in Lethbridge will support growth in 2019. While on opposite sides of the country, expanded mining production will help boost exports for both Nova Scotia
and British Columbia
. In BC, higher production from the Highland Valley and Mount Milligan copper mines along with forestry prices that are offsetting the impacts of U.S. countervailing duties on softwood lumber support growth. In Nova Scotia, growth will be boosted by the opening of the Touquoy gold mine. In 2018, Prince Edward Island
will see some growth, although the trade deal with the EU should support diversification for its agricultural and aquaculture products. Similarly, New Brunswick
will see modest growth as stronger commodity prices help offset impacts from U.S. softwood lumber and groundwood pulp duties. For Ontario
, a steadying of automotive demand in the U.S., coupled with uncertainty around the future of NAFTA and the U.S.’s sentiment towards trade, will weigh on the outlook. Saskatchewan
’s will see limited growth as weak commodity prices and transportation bottlenecks and the closure of mines and a smelter and refinery hit the respective provinces goods exports.
Canadian Merchandise Export Forecast by Province
|Provinces||CAD bn 2017||Share of Total Goods Exports 2017||2017||Export Outlook|
(% growth) 2018 (f)
|Total Goods Exports||501.6||100.0%||6.9%||6%||4%|
|Newfoundland and Labrador||10.2||2.0%||20.9%||11%||7%|
|Prince Edward Island||1.3||0.3%||5.0%||4%||6%|
Sources: Statistics Canada, EDC Economics, 2017 is actual data while 2018 and 2019 are forecast.
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