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Global Export Forecast – Spring 2017

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Global Export Forecast
Spring 2017

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Globalization at the brink?

This one is really big. It touches every region, every country, every firm. In fact, it is so big, it likely touches every individual on the planet. It has steadily grown into the fabric of everything we do, and to many, almost unnoticed. And now we are talking about undoing it all.

It is hard to fully estimate the entire reach and impact of this thing we call globalization. And yet in our frustration with a sluggish post-recession economy that has left many behind, a slim majority seems to believe that globalization is the culprit. This development has rapidly zoomed up the global risk list, and currently occupies top spot.

Is globalization over?

Sector Overview

Canadian exports of goods and services are projected to see a strong rebound in 2017 and 2018, with goods exports growing by six per cent and four per cent respectively. Service exports will follow a similar growth trajectory, averaging five per cent over the forecast period.

Provincial Overview

Canadian merchandise export growth is forecast to grow by six per cent in 2017 as higher commodity prices, coupled with stronger exports of consumer goods result in a rebound after a contraction in nominal exports in 2016. With commodity price growth expected to moderate in 2018, Canadian exports are expected to increase by four per cent as volume gains propel export growth.

Global Economic Outlook

U.S. GDP

U.S. Housing Starts

U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate

Oil (WTI) Price Drivers

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Gold

Copper

CAD/USD Exchange Rate

Canadian GDP

China

Euro Area GDP

Japan

India

Brazil

Mexico

Russia

South Africa

Global Economic Outlook (GEO)

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