Provincial export growth numbers vary widely in 2018. In 2019, while growth will moderate, all provinces are forecast to enjoy solid export growth gains against the backdrop of a more predictable trading environment with the announcement of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Newfoundland and Labrador will enjoy double digit growth in nominal exports in both 2018 and 2019 thanks to increasing oil production from the Hebron offshore oil platform and the ramp up of Vale’s Long Harbour nickel processing plant. In Prince Edward Island, exports are forecast to contract this year but frozen food manufacturing – PEI’s largest export industry – will support a rebound of 8% growth for 2019. The trade deal with the EU will also open up increased export markets for the province’s agricultural and aquaculture products.
For Ontario, the uncertainty around the future of NAFTA and possible auto tariffs weighed negatively on the outlook for much of 2018. However, the agreement in principle on the USMCA, has removed the auto tariff threat. Coupled with a positive outlook for the province’s mineral, industrial manufacturing/equipment and consumer goods exports, export growth will achieve a solid 4% lift in 2019.
New Brunswick is poised for back to back years of positive export growth thanks to stronger commodity prices, improved conditions in the fishing sector and the US International Trade Commission’s decision to rescind duties against Canadian newsprint exports.
Quebec’s increased aircraft production and expansion of the Éléonore gold mine support a steady 4% export growth outlook for 2019, further buoyed by expectations of new mining production and stronger electricity exports.
The opening of the Touquoy gold mine and implementation of the trade agreement with the EU are supporting the boost in exports for Nova Scotia this year and next. Similarly, increased production at the Highland Valley and Mount Milligan copper mines will lead to stable export growth for British Columbia into 2019. There is also growing optimism for a potential decision point for a $40 billion liquefied natural gas terminal, which could supply gas to Asia.
Despite mixed crop development owing to dry conditions in parts of the province, Manitoba will enjoy double digit export growth this year and 5% growth in 2019. This is supported in part by much needed investment into the province’s food manufacturing industry with projects such as the new $400 million Roquette pea processing plant designed to meet growing global demand for plant-based protein rich foods.
Alberta will enjoy a banner year in 2018 driven in part by the ramping up of oil production for the Fort Hills oil sands project. 2019 will build on this growth, driven by new export capacity growth in the energy sector and the anticipated Fall 2019 opening of the $360 million Cavendish Farms frozen potato processing plant.
Canadian Merchandise Export Forecast by Province
|Provinces||CAD bn 2017||Share of Total Goods Exports 2017||2017||Export Outlook
(% growth) 2018 (f)
|Total Goods Exports||501.0||100.0%||6.8%||6%||4%|
|Newfoundland and Labrador||10.1||2.0%||20.9%||33%||11%|
|Prince Edward Island||1.3||0.3%||4.9%||(4%)||8%|
Sources: Statistics Canada, EDC Economics, 2017 is actual data while 2018 and 2019 are forecast.
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